Electoral Chairs’ Seminars – February 6th

Business as Usual: The Determinants of Vote Choice in the 2021 Canadian Federal Election

Matthew Taylor – PhD Candidat at Université de Montréal

Due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the 2021 federal election was unique in the history of Canada’s federal campaigns. In spite of the health crisis however, the results of the election belied the unique nature of the campaign’s context with voters returning an almost identical parliament to the one they had elected just two years prior. This paper seeks to examine if holding an election campaign during a public health crisis had an impact on the determinants of vote choice for Canadian electors. The critical question at the core of this project is simple, were the determinants of vote choice affected by the context of the COVID-19 pandemic or was the 2021 federal election simply business as usual? Using data from the 2021 Canadian Election Study and a block recursive approach, I examine which factors had an impact on the vote choice of Canadians with a view towards understanding if the pandemic changed or otherwise affected the impact of these factors. In so doing, this paper provides both an updated snapshot of the determinants of the vote for Canadian electors and an account of the electoral behaviour of Canadians in a moment of crisis.

This content has been updated on 2 February 2023 at 9 h 56 min.