Tuesday Seminar – 27 avril

Does bottom-up spillover effect exist for radical right party? Evidence from Germany

Chan Ka-Ming

Previous literature suggests that a party’s electoral result can shape its vote share and voters’ calculus in a subsequent election. Yet, can this information-updating process help explaining the success of radical right party (RRP) in a multi-level system? To answer this question, I bring together the literature of concatenated elections and second-order elections, and propose that crossing the regional electoral hurdle can foster a RRP’s performance in a subsequent general election. By leveraging the case of Germany, I first use a regression discontinuity design to estimate whether a bottom-up spillover effect exists for RRP at the aggregate level. Next, to analyze the micro-level foundation of this effect, I use a recent panel data to ascertain whether it is the changed viability mechanism or bandwagon mechanism that drives such effect. The analysis suggests that bandwagon mechanism is more likely, since AfD voters see the party in a more positive light after it had entered subnational parliaments. These findings enrich our understanding of both the second-order election framework and radical right studies, as they indicate that radical right parties can take advantage of regional electoral success to enter national party system.

Contact Semih Çakır if you would like to participate in the seminar.

This content has been updated on 23 April 2021 at 11 h 55 min.